IntergraphToastmasters
| by Joe Gillis
|
Look out…La Niña’s Coming!
Named by scientists in mid-1980’s
La Niña means "little girl"
Sometimes called "El Viejo" or "cold event"
Explains the weather cycle directly opposite to El Niño
Characterized by colder than average Eastern Pacific Ocean
It is a scientific term explaining a cyclic weather pattern
Is observed less frequently than El Niño
Less is known about predicting La Niña effects around the world
Recent Past La Niña’s
1984-85: weak event that followed strong 1982-83 El Niño
1988-89: strong event that followed moderate 1986-87 El Niño
1995-96: weak event that followed moderate 1991-1995 El Niño
*********************************************************
Focus on 1988-89 La Niña
Heat and drought in southern US
(June 1988 Huntsville had all-time record low 0.17-inch rain)
More frequent and severe than usual hurricanes in the Atlantic
(Gilbert in ’88 and Hugo in ’89; probability of 2+ severestorms doubled)
Pacific Ocean cooled 7 degrees F in two months
What’s Happening Right Now?
Area of the Pacific Ocean off the South American coast 2 ½ times thesize of California has cooled below the normal 80 deg. F
Average water temperature in equatorial Pacific dropped 15 deg. F fromearly May until late June - retreating El Niño and invading La Niña
(rate of drop is twice as fast as the start of the 1988 LaNiña)
Mass of cold water is heading northward toward California
Texas and Florida have experienced periods of heat wave and drought
Atlantic Hurricane season off to fast start, H Bonnie is landfalling inNC as I speak, TS Charlie flooded south Texas and H Danielle is in the Caribbean
Prediction for 1998-1999 La Niña
|
Economics of La Niña…
Peruvian Fishing Industry improved
Indonesian Grain production lower due to floods
U.S. Corn and Cotton commodities futures up due to drought
Caribbean and U.S. construction increase due to hurricane damage
Heating bills lower in southern U.S. higher in northern U.S.
California tourist industry improvement
Credit where Credit is Due
…Scientific/Technical:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) -
Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) sensor array program
NASA - Goddard Space Flight Center
Colorado State University
National Hurricane Center - Miami
National Center for Atmospheric Research
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) - World Climate Program
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Media:
ABC News Reuters CNBC The Weather Channel
LA Times 7AM News Washington Post
Internet: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/la-nina-story.html
